--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       log:  D:\StayingAlive\data\basic_datasets\WarAims\WarAimsAnalysis.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   1 Feb 2004, 15:11:13

. do "C:\DOCUME~1\JAMESM~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\STD00000000.tmp"

. insheet using waraimsclean.csv
(48 vars, 5218 obs)

. 
. * Calculate instruments for energy consumption per capita (cappig1), iron-steel
. * consumption per capita (cappig2), and democracy - autocracy (WSDemRes)
. 
. regress capitalistpig1 year s w logpop

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    3827
-------------+------------------------------           F(  4,  3822) =  354.65
       Model |    7376.417     4  1844.10425           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  19873.7591  3822  5.19983231           R-squared     =  0.2707
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.2699
       Total |  27250.1761  3826  7.12236698           Root MSE      =  2.2803

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
capitalist~1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        year |   .0143474   .0010118    14.18   0.000     .0123635    .0163312
           s |     -.3807   .1195868    -3.18   0.001    -.6151601   -.1462398
           w |   4.089969   .1428073    28.64   0.000     3.809983    4.369955
      logpop |   .4730014   .0517325     9.14   0.000     .3715754    .5744274
       _cons |  -30.27767   1.998327   -15.15   0.000    -34.19556   -26.35978
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict cappig1, residuals
(1391 missing values generated)

. regress capitalistpig2 year w s logpop

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    4293
-------------+------------------------------           F(  4,  4288) =  438.05
       Model |  46.7657279     4   11.691432           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  114.445406  4288  .026689694           R-squared     =  0.2901
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.2894
       Total |  161.211134  4292  .037560842           Root MSE      =  .16337

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
capitalist~2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        year |   .0005935   .0000596     9.96   0.000     .0004766    .0007103
           w |   .2638497   .0097175    27.15   0.000     .2447984     .282901
           s |  -.0001301   .0077811    -0.02   0.987    -.0153851     .015125
      logpop |   .0607735   .0033059    18.38   0.000     .0542921    .0672548
       _cons |  -1.466423   .1152527   -12.72   0.000    -1.692378   -1.240468
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict cappig2, residuals
(925 missing values generated)

. gen democracy = (10 + democ - autoc)/20
(711 missing values generated)

. regress democracy w s

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    3839
-------------+------------------------------           F(  2,  3836) = 4034.81
       Model |  363.427431     2  181.713715           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |   172.76022  3836  .045036554           R-squared     =  0.6778
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.6776
       Total |  536.187651  3838  .139704964           Root MSE      =  .21222

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   democracy |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           w |   1.036926   .0130312    79.57   0.000     1.011378    1.062475
           s |  -.0172256   .0109017    -1.58   0.114    -.0385992     .004148
       _cons |  -.0905786   .0091251    -9.93   0.000     -.108469   -.0726882
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict WSDemRes, residuals
(1379 missing values generated)

. 
. * Mindless renaming of variables to make Stata happy
. 
. ren s S

. ren w W

. ren w_mod W_mod

. ren opps oppS

. ren oppw oppW

. ren oppw_mod oppW_mod

. ren effectives effectiveS

. ren effectiveopps effectiveoppS

. ren effectives_mod effectiveS_mod

. ren effectiveopps_mod effectiveoppS_mod

. 
. * The next four lines produces the results reported in Table 9.1
. 
. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio landcontig if hostlev >= 4

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1157.7146
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1091.2324
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1089.1896
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1089.1847

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       2189
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =     137.06
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1089.1847                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0592

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |  -1.043776   .2150532    -4.85   0.000    -1.465272    -.622279
  effectiveS |   .1783333   .2030937     0.88   0.380    -.2197231    .5763897
        oppW |   .7287827   .1825848     3.99   0.000     .3709231    1.086642
  powerratio |   .2104685   .1718926     1.22   0.221    -.1264347    .5473718
  landcontig |   1.049522   .1135967     9.24   0.000     .8268763    1.272167
       _cons |  -1.911357   .2191011    -8.72   0.000    -2.340787   -1.481927
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio logpop year post45 landcontig WSDemRes cappig
> 1 cappig2 if hostlev >= 4

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -914.57869
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -835.90764
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -828.21904
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -827.664
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -827.65898
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -827.65898

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       1730
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     173.84
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -827.65898                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0950

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |  -1.962075   .2853574    -6.88   0.000    -2.521365   -1.402784
  effectiveS |  -.1848351   .2355785    -0.78   0.433    -.6465605    .2768902
        oppW |   .9918531   .2130649     4.66   0.000     .5742535    1.409453
  powerratio |   .3757779   .2316528     1.62   0.105    -.0782532    .8298091
      logpop |  -.2231915   .1068425    -2.09   0.037    -.4325991    -.013784
        year |  -.0030906   .0031633    -0.98   0.329    -.0092905    .0031093
      post45 |   -.925703   .2444871    -3.79   0.000    -1.404889   -.4465171
  landcontig |   .9520952   .1427016     6.67   0.000     .6724053    1.231785
    WSDemRes |  -.0676143   .2796933    -0.24   0.809    -.6158031    .4805746
     cappig1 |  -.2378351   .0689663    -3.45   0.001    -.3730066   -.1026636
     cappig2 |  -.1149658   .4987774    -0.23   0.818    -1.092552      .86262
       _cons |   6.011542   6.014683     1.00   0.318    -5.777021     17.8001
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio landcontig if hostlev >= 4 & joinerdyad == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -947.79582
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -893.29675
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -891.49562
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -891.48929
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -891.48929

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       1754
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =     112.61
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -891.48929                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0594

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |  -.9649545   .2332316    -4.14   0.000     -1.42208    -.507829
  effectiveS |   .0224988   .2259729     0.10   0.921       -.4204    .4653977
        oppW |    .460262   .2022818     2.28   0.023     .0637969     .856727
  powerratio |   .1720984   .1926046     0.89   0.372    -.2053997    .5495964
  landcontig |   1.163763    .134538     8.65   0.000     .9000732    1.427453
       _cons |   -1.82569   .2496284    -7.31   0.000    -2.314953   -1.336428
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio logpop year post45 landcontig WSDemRes cappig
> 1 cappig2 if hostlev >= 4 & joinerdyad == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -742.17123
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -673.29145
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -665.9009
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -665.21492
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -665.20415
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -665.20415

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       1393
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     153.93
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -665.20415                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1037

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |   -2.09156   .3322063    -6.30   0.000    -2.742672   -1.440447
  effectiveS |  -.4149164   .2657566    -1.56   0.118    -.9357899     .105957
        oppW |   .8004622   .2362118     3.39   0.001     .3374957    1.263429
  powerratio |   .3375151   .2600848     1.30   0.194    -.1722416    .8472719
      logpop |  -.1507195   .1180683    -1.28   0.202     -.382129    .0806901
        year |  -.0074576   .0035165    -2.12   0.034    -.0143498   -.0005654
      post45 |  -.7723925   .2781467    -2.78   0.005     -1.31755    -.227235
  landcontig |   1.156105   .1750774     6.60   0.000     .8129593     1.49925
    WSDemRes |   .1706234   .3065224     0.56   0.578    -.4301496    .7713963
     cappig1 |  -.2691892   .0851046    -3.16   0.002    -.4359912   -.1023872
     cappig2 |  -.2038275   .6549969    -0.31   0.756    -1.487598    1.079943
       _cons |   14.18191   6.690908     2.12   0.034     1.067974    27.29585
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * The next four lines shows the results using the typical definition of 
. * contiguity 
. 
. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio normalcontig if hostlev >= 4

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1157.7146
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1102.0493
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1100.3399
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1100.3351

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       2189
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =     114.76
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1100.3351                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0496

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |  -1.103695    .214574    -5.14   0.000    -1.524252   -.6831374
  effectiveS |   .1311286   .2015858     0.65   0.515    -.2639724    .5262296
        oppW |   .6853324   .1799141     3.81   0.000     .3327073    1.037958
  powerratio |   .1953043   .1704724     1.15   0.252    -.1388153     .529424
normalcontig |   .9597212   .1208492     7.94   0.000     .7228611    1.196581
       _cons |  -1.868288   .2210627    -8.45   0.000    -2.301563   -1.435013
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio logpop year post45 normalcontig WSDemRes capp
> ig1 cappig2 if hostlev >= 4

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -914.57869
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -839.09701
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -831.31732
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -830.72966
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =   -830.724
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =   -830.724

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       1730
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     167.71
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =   -830.724                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0917

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |  -2.003918   .2858278    -7.01   0.000     -2.56413   -1.443706
  effectiveS |   -.243872   .2349941    -1.04   0.299    -.7044518    .2167079
        oppW |   1.036271   .2136676     4.85   0.000     .6174901    1.455052
  powerratio |   .4805259   .2281992     2.11   0.035     .0332636    .9277882
      logpop |  -.2998678   .1048943    -2.86   0.004    -.5054568   -.0942788
        year |  -.0021435   .0031626    -0.68   0.498     -.008342    .0040551
      post45 |   -.979654   .2451859    -4.00   0.000     -1.46021   -.4990984
normalcontig |   .9083091   .1470995     6.17   0.000     .6199993    1.196619
    WSDemRes |  -.0924329   .2801212    -0.33   0.741    -.6414603    .4565945
     cappig1 |  -.2550653   .0685283    -3.72   0.000    -.3893783   -.1207523
     cappig2 |  -.0864203   .4761491    -0.18   0.856    -1.019655    .8468149
       _cons |   4.432503   6.022562     0.74   0.462    -7.371501    16.23651
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio normalcontig if hostlev >= 4 & joinerdyad == 
> 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -947.79582
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -902.13266
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -900.38341
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -900.37371
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -900.37371

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       1754
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      94.84
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -900.37371                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0500

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |  -1.021231   .2325859    -4.39   0.000    -1.477091   -.5653711
  effectiveS |   -.031262   .2241588    -0.14   0.889    -.4706052    .4080813
        oppW |   .4084605   .1984231     2.06   0.040     .0195584    .7973627
  powerratio |   .1599608   .1908193     0.84   0.402    -.2140382    .5339598
normalcontig |   1.140709   .1516692     7.52   0.000     .8434433    1.437975
       _cons |  -1.836448   .2567451    -7.15   0.000    -2.339659   -1.333237
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit territory W effectiveS oppW powerratio logpop year post45 normalcontig WSDemRes capp
> ig1 cappig2 if hostlev >= 4 & joinerdyad == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -742.17123
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -674.93347
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -667.19381
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -666.45187
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -666.43936
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -666.43936

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =       1393
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     151.46
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -666.43936                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1020

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   territory |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           W |  -2.124442   .3326243    -6.39   0.000    -2.776374   -1.472511
  effectiveS |  -.4889798   .2651737    -1.84   0.065    -1.008711    .0307511
        oppW |   .8510945   .2366589     3.60   0.000     .3872516    1.314937
  powerratio |   .4779656   .2554691     1.87   0.061    -.0227446    .9786757
      logpop |  -.2399371   .1155607    -2.08   0.038    -.4664318   -.0134423
        year |  -.0068708    .003545    -1.94   0.053    -.0138189    .0000772
      post45 |  -.8004618   .2804628    -2.85   0.004    -1.350159   -.2507647
normalcontig |   1.198555   .1894338     6.33   0.000     .8272721    1.569839
    WSDemRes |    .147313   .3072244     0.48   0.632    -.4548357    .7494617
     cappig1 |  -.2924093   .0839155    -3.48   0.000    -.4568806   -.1279379
     cappig2 |   -.171109   .6166544    -0.28   0.781    -1.379729    1.037511
       _cons |   13.23229   6.750156     1.96   0.050     .0022247    26.46235
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. clear

. exit

end of do-file

. log close
       log:  D:\StayingAlive\data\basic_datasets\WarAims\WarAimsAnalysis.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   1 Feb 2004, 15:11:30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
